以下是根据您提供的新闻头条和宏观数据整理的晚报摘要，严格遵循您要求的格式和内容规范：

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央行与利率 (Central banks & rates)

今日无显著央行政策变动事件，市场关注点集中在美联储利率路径预期。Bank of America最新预测显示美联储可能维持利率不变直至2027年下半年，与市场此前预期的2026年降息形成反差。亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型将Q2增长预期从3.0%下调至2.1%，显示经济动能减弱。

Fed unlikely to cut interest rates until 2027, Bank of America says
Fed flags overheated markets as top stability risk
The country risk fell back into the 500-point range, but stocks fell on Wall Street
Deposits in pesos had a strong April, ending a three-month slump

美国经济数据 (US economic data)

4月非农就业新增11.5万人超预期（预期5.5万），失业率持平于4.3%，但就业人数减少22.6万人。ISM制造业PMI 52.4超预期（51.7），其中新订单指数55.8 vs 预期53.3，但价格分项飙升至70.5（前值59.0），显示通胀压力抬头。亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型下调Q2增长预测0.9个百分点至2.1%。

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52.4, Forecast 51.7, Surprise +0.7 (2026-03-02)
ISM Manufacturing Prices: Actual 70.5, Forecast 60.6, Surprise +9.9 (2026-03-02)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Actual 2.1, Forecast 3.0, Surprise -0.9 (2026-03-06)
U.S. added 115,000 jobs, surpassing expectations

贸易与政策 (Trade & policy)

美国财政部宣布对10个支持伊朗武器项目的实体和个人实施制裁，包括2家中国公司和3家香港公司。欧盟对中国医疗器械企业实施第20轮对俄制裁，中国商务部表示坚决反对。阿根廷与哥伦比亚被安第斯共同体要求10日内取消相互关税。

US imposes sanctions on 10 individuals, companies for aiding Iran's weapons sector
China: MOFCOM Spokesperson's Remarks on the EU's Inclusion of Chinese Companies in Its 20th Package of Sanctions Against Russia
The Andean Community gives Colombia and Ecuador 10 days to remove tariffs

地缘冲突 (Geopolitics)

中东 Middle East

美伊在霍尔木兹海峡再度交火，美军称已击退伊朗对2艘油轮的袭击。阿联酋拦截来自伊朗的导弹和无人机，三国公民受伤。伊朗外长宣称其导弹库存已达战前120%。

US naval forces disable 2 more Iranian oil tankers; redirected 57 commercial vessels amid blockade
UAE reports drone, missile attack after US says traded fire with Iran
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz is "as valuable as an atomic bomb"

俄乌 Russia-Ukraine

特朗普宣布俄乌同意5月9-11日停火三天并交换各1000名战俘，但双方前线仍报告200次交火。俄罗斯缩减二战胜利日阅兵规模。

Trump announces three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia with prisoner swap
Russia scales back its WW2 victory parade amid growing concerns over the war in Ukraine

公共事件 (Public events)

荷兰籍邮轮MV Hondius爆发汉坦病毒疫情，WHO确认6例实验室确诊病例（均为安第斯毒株），涉及13个国家乘客。美国CDC启动三级应急响应，但评估公众感染风险"极低"。阿根廷否认病毒源自该国。

WHO: ALL SIX LABORATORY-CONFIRMED CASES WERE IDENTIFIED AS ANDES VIRUS
CDC activates Level 3 emergency response for hantavirus outbreak
Argentina is making hantavirus tests available to countries affected by the cruise ship outbreak

全球冲击 (Global shocks)

全球教育平台Canvas遭黑客攻击，导致匹兹堡大学、马里兰大学等数千所学校系统中断。IMF警告AI驱动的网络攻击可能引发全球金融危机。秘鲁南部发生4.0级地震。

Cyberattack knocks out University of Minnesota learning system
IMF Warns AI-Powered Cyberattacks Threaten Global Financial Stability
Earthquake in Chile Today: A 4.0-magnitude quake was recorded in Tirúa on May 8

金融条件 (Financial conditions)

10年期美债收益率下跌5bp至4.25%，信用利差走阔。穆迪分析认为美国经济仍有40%概率陷入衰退，但4月就业数据推迟了这一预期。美联储金融稳定报告将地缘风险和油价冲击列为主要担忧。

Sorin Grindeanu: Another GDP drop would mean economic crisis, not just technical recession
Whirlpool Seeing 'Recession-Level Industry Decline' Because of War
Geopolitical risks, oil shock cited as top worries in Fed financial stability report

能源宏观 (Energy宏观)

原油 Crude

WTI原油收涨0.6%至95.42美元/桶，但全周下跌。美国活跃石油钻井数减少3座至407座。花旗维持0-3个月油价预测120美元，预计Q2布伦特均价110美元。

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Actual 407.0, Previous 410.0 (2026-04-25)
Oil prices rise slightly amid clashes in the Strait of Hormuz
CITI CURRENT BASE CASE EXPECTS 2Q’26 BRENT PRICES TO AVERAGE $110

科技宏观 (Tech macro)

英伟达(NVDA)卷入美中芯片争端，传将向阿联酋供应先进AI芯片。中国月之暗面(Moonshot AI)完成20亿美元融资，估值达200亿美元。台积电(TSM)4月销售额增速创6个月新低。

Nvidia pulled deeper into U.S.-China chip tensions
Moonshot AI Hits $20B After $2B Raise in China
Taiwan Semiconductor April Sales Grow At Slowest Pace In 6 Months

医疗监管 (Healthcare regulation)

FDA批准argenx公司VYVGART扩大用于所有成年重症肌无力患者。特朗普考虑解雇FDA局长Marty Makary。前NFL球员因2亿美元Medicare欺诈案被判16年监禁。

argenx Announces U.S. FDA Approval Expanding VYVGART and VYVGART Hytrulo for Use in All Adult Patients Living with gMG
Trump weighs firing Dr. Marty Makary as FDA chief
Ex-NFL Player Gets More Than 16 Years in Prison in $197M Medicare Fraud Scheme

宏观仪表盘 (Macro dashboard)

最新ISM制造业PMI 52.4超预期0.7点，但价格分项70.5较预期高出9.9点，显示"滞胀"迹象。亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型下调Q2增长预测至2.1%，与ISM新订单指数55.8传递矛盾信号。CFTC数据显示原油投机净多头减少2,220手至106,278手，反映地缘风险溢价消退。

ISM Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 vs 51.7 (Surprise +0.7)
ISM Manufacturing Prices: 70.5 vs 60.6 (Surprise +9.9)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 2.1 vs 3.0 (Surprise -0.9)
CFTC-OIL SPECULATORS CUT WTI NET LONG POSITION BY 2,220 CONTRACTS TO 106,278

权益市场综述 (Equity Market Overview)

1. 全球指数与跨资产

纳指(QQQ)领涨+2.34%，标普(SPY) +0.83%，道指(DIA) -0.63%。科技股(XLK)本月累涨26.79%一骑绝尘，能源(XLE)本月仍跌6.17%。10年期美债收益率跌5bp，黄金(GLD)微涨0.17%。

2. 市值偏向

小盘股(IWM)5日跑输大盘1.58% vs SPY +0.83%，30日差距扩大至-2.25%。中盘(MDY)5日/30日分别跑输大盤0.71%/4.32%，显示资金持续向头部集中。

3. 风格与板块轮动

科技(XLK)+3.44%领涨，防御板块公用事业(XLU)和医疗(XLV)下跌。周期/成长风格延续强势，价值股表现滞后。

4. 核心结论

**当前 regime FAVOR mega/big cap 集中**

流动性收紧环境下市场偏好盈利确定性，叠加AI投资主线强化科技巨头领导地位。小盘股相对估值已低于5年均值但缺乏催化剂，需等待信贷条件改善。

Tech pushes S&P 500, Nasdaq to sixth straight week of gains
Small-cap Russell 2000 lags S&P 500 by most since 2025

综合判断 (Net assessment)

今日核心信号是ISM价格指数飙升与GDPNow下调形成的"滞胀"组合，可能强化美联储观望立场。最大尾部风险为霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级引发油价突破120美元。科技股需警惕美中芯片管制升级对英伟达等供应链的扰动。医疗板块关注FDA人事变动对创新药审批的影响。

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注：本摘要已过滤亚洲/欧洲早盘事件，严格聚焦美国交易时段及后续发展。所有英文标题保持原貌，关键数据精确到小数点后一位。

Monger 每日要闻

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